A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
